The Three Biggest Near Upsets of the 2026 World Cup - And What Comes Next for Spain, Portugal, and Brazil
Three of the most decorated national teams in football history walked into their first Group Stage games as heavy favorites. None of them won.
Spain, Portugal, and Brazil - a combined 8 World Cup titles between them - each dropped points in their first Group Stage game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The results sent shockwaves through the tournament and immediately reshuffled the power rankings. Here's what happened, why it matters, and what each team faces next.
1. Spain 0-0 Cabo Verde (Group H, June 15 - Atlanta Stadium)
Spain entered their opener as reigning European champions, ranked among the top favorites to lift the trophy in New Jersey on July 19. Their opponents, Cabo Verde, were making their World Cup debut. The island nation of roughly 500,000 people had never played on this stage.
The scoreline at full time: 0-0.
Spain had 27 shots. Cabo Verde had 6. The difference was a 40-year-old goalkeeper named Vozinha, who produced a string of brilliant saves late in the first half to deny Oyarzabal, Laporte, and Torres - the latter also rattling the crossbar on Spain's best chance of the match. Spain dominated 65% of possession and fired 7 shots on target. None went in.
Cabo Verde's game plan was textbook low block - disciplined, organized, and executed with almost no margin for error. They didn't come to play. They came to survive. And they did.
For Spain, the failure wasn't effort - it was clinical finishing. A team built around Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Morata had no answer for a defense that simply refused to break.
Game 2 Outlook: Spain vs. Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta)
This is a must-respond moment. Saudi Arabia drew 1-1 with Uruguay in their opener, which means Group H is wide open - all four teams on a single point after their first games. Spain cannot afford another dropped result if they want to avoid going into Game 3 against Uruguay needing a win.
The good news: Saudi Arabia are beatable. The bad news: Spain's attack hasn't proven it can finish when it matters. Expect Luis de la Fuente to make changes up front and demand sharper decision-making in the final third. Spain should win this - but that's what everyone said about Cabo Verde.
2. Portugal 1-1 DR Congo (Group K, June 17 - Houston Stadium)
Cristiano Ronaldo's final World Cup campaign began in Houston with a result that stunned everyone outside the Democratic Republic of Congo dugout. Portugal went ahead after just 6 minutes - Joao Neves got on the end of a Pedro Neto cross and headed home. They finished the first half with 80% possession.
DR Congo equalized on the stroke of halftime. Yoane Wissa - the Brentford forward - became the first Congolese player to ever score at a World Cup. It was DR Congo's first-ever point in the competition. Their previous appearance, as Zaire in 1974, ended with three losses and no goals.
The second half was where Portugal's performance truly fell apart. They generated just 0.69 xG after the break. A Joao Cancelo overhead kick was ruled out by VAR for offside. Ronaldo dragged two shots wide in the 68th and 74th minutes. DR Congo, meanwhile, registered more xG than Portugal over the full 90 minutes (0.87 to 0.65) and came closer to winning than losing in the second half. Thierry Henry put it plainly on CBS: "The team needs to score, not you need to score."
Despite 75% possession and over 700 completed passes, Portugal managed exactly one shot on target in the entire match.
Game 2 Outlook: Portugal vs. Uzbekistan (June 23, Houston)
Portugal face Uzbekistan next - a team that scored its first-ever World Cup goal against Colombia before losing 3-1. On paper, this is the most favorable matchup Portugal will have in the group. But the finishing woes that showed up against DR Congo won't disappear on their own.
If Ronaldo can't convert chances against a minnow, the conversation about his starting role will intensify. Portugal still control their destiny - win the next two and they advance - but the belief that this team can challenge deep into the knockout rounds took a hit in Houston.
3. Brazil 1-1 Morocco (Group C, June 13 - New York/New Jersey Stadium)
Brazil's opener against Morocco was billed as one of the marquee group-stage clashes. Morocco had been to the semifinals in Qatar 2022. Brazil arrived with Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, and first-time World Cup manager Carlo Ancelotti in the dugout.
Morocco struck first. Ismael Saibari threaded through Brazil's defensive line in the 21st minute and chipped Alisson Becker with a perfectly-weighted finish. Brazil responded 11 minutes later - Vinicius dribbled past his marker and curled a stunning effort into the top corner for the equalizer, his 10th Brazil goal. It's arguably the best individual moment of the tournament so far.
That's where the scoring ended. Brazil had 12 shots in just the opening 30 minutes, then went largely quiet as Morocco tightened their defensive shape. Alisson produced a crucial double save in stoppage time to preserve the point. Morocco outshot Brazil 14 to 12 overall, and Morocco's xG was competitive throughout.
The result ended Vinicius's 100% winning record when scoring for Brazil (8 wins prior to this match, now a draw). Neymar remains absent through injury, leaving Vinicius as the clear lead man - and this point left that role feeling heavier than expected.
Game 2 Outlook: Brazil vs. Haiti (June 19, Philadelphia)
Brazil face Haiti next - a team that lost 1-0 to Scotland in their opener. This is the bounce-back game. Haiti are ranked 84th in the world and are making only their second World Cup appearance since 1974. Brazil should win comfortably, and goal difference could matter later in a group where Brazil, Morocco, and Scotland are all capable of picking up points.
Ancelotti needs to sort out Brazil's defensive structure after being caught on the counter by Morocco. The attack showed flashes - Vinicius is in form, Raphinha created chances - but the team's cohesion over 90 minutes still looks incomplete. A big win against Haiti helps. It also sets up what could be a decisive Group C showdown with Morocco in Game 3.
FAQ: What You're Probably Wondering
Did any of these near upsets actually eliminate a title contender?
Not yet - but they changed the math. Spain, Portugal, and Brazil all remain in control of their groups heading into their second games. The danger is a stumble there. In the new 48-team format, the eight best third-place finishers still advance, which provides some cushion. But for teams with genuine title ambitions, dropping points twice in the group stage creates a brutal path through the knockout round.
How big of a deal is DR Congo's point against Portugal, historically?
Significant. DR Congo - playing as Zaire in 1974 - were famously outscored 14-0 across three group matches in their only prior World Cup appearance. Yoane Wissa's equalizer wasn't just a point; it was the first goal the country has ever scored on the World Cup stage. That context makes the Portugal draw more than an upset - it's a landmark moment for African football.
Is Spain's attack actually broken, or just unlucky?
Both, probably. Spain attempted 27 shots and put 7 on target against Cabo Verde - a team ranked outside the top 60 in FIFA's standings. The volume is there. The clinical edge is not. Vozinha had an extraordinary game, and Torres hitting the crossbar was pure bad luck. But Spain's inability to manufacture cleaner looks from inside the box - given their possession numbers - is a real structural concern. Saudi Arabia will give them a cleaner test.
